Economics Expert Was Allowed to Opine on Recidivism
Posted on December 10, 2025 by Expert Witness Profiler
Plaintiff John Doe brought facial and as-applied constitutional challenges to the reporting requirements contained in Arizona’s sex offender registry statutes. Under Arizona’s statutory scheme, Doe is required to register as a
sex offender for life.
Intervenor-Defendants Warren Petersen and Ben Toma retained Dr. John Lott as an expert witness. Plaintiff filed a motion to exclude the testimony of Lott in whole and in part.
Economics Expert Witness
John Richard Lott holds a Ph.D. in economics and served as the chief economist for the United States Sentencing Commission. Presently, Lott is the President of the Crime Prevention Research Center, a role he has served in since 2021.
Discussion by the Court
Doe argued that Lott is not qualified to offer the opinions in Lott’s report because Lott has had “no training in criminology, sociology, psychology or any related fields,” possesses “no certification or formal training in the treatment or assessment of sex offenders,” and “has never been qualified by another court as an expert in general recidivism, sexual offense recidivism, or any other topic relevant to this case.” The Court disagreed.
Lott possesses some background in statistics and has been retained by Intervenor-Defendants to conduct a statistical analysis; Lott thus possesses the “minimal foundation of knowledge, skill, and experience” necessary to be qualified as an expert under Rule 702.
Held
The Court denied Doe’s motion to exclude the testimony of Dr. John Lott in whole and in part.
Key Takeaway
Lott possesses no discernible specialized knowledge or expertise in the area of sex crimes, sex offender recidivism, or recidivism more broadly. Nonetheless, Doe’s arguments for excluding Lott’s testimony from this matter ultimately go to the weight, not the admissibility, of Lott’s testimony.
Case Details:
| Case Caption: | Doe V. Sheridan |
| Docket Number: | 2:23cv1938 |
| Court Name: | United States District Court, Arizona |
| Order Date: | November 07, 2025 |
